The Halfway Huddle: Why Mid-Season Metrics Matter

At the midpoint of the season, the league table tells one story, but the underlying data—specifically Expected Goals (xG)—tells us a far more predictive one. As the physical and mental demands of the second half ramp up, performance built on solid metrics is more likely to endure than performance built on luck.

In todays post I dive into the numbers forthe ‘Big Three’ (FC Porto, Sporting CP, and SL Benfica) to see who is structurally sound, and who is simply riding a wave.

The Difference Maker: Porto’s Explosive Efficiency

In attack, there is a clear separation. FC Porto is generating the highest quality chances (2.15 NPxG P90) while taking a high volume of shots (20.88 P90). But the true dominance lies in our clinical finishing:

Porto’s astronomical +1.2 Goals – NPxG figure means that we are scoring significantly more than the chances dictate. While this is driving our massive 3.35 Goals P90, the key question for the second half is sustainability. If our finishing cools off even marginally, our output will drop. For now, we are the most potent and terrifying attack in the league.

Individual Spotlight: Samu Aghehowa’s Impact

Samu’s personal metrics highlight the source of our advantage—and the strategic challenge of sustainability:

Samu’s +6.05 overperformance is a statistical outlier, driven by a sensational 71% Shots on Target rate. He is, single-handedly, responsible for the majority of our team’s overall goal-scoring overperformance.

Strategic Directive:

1. System Support: Our attacking structure must continue to generate high-quality opportunities (maintaining the team’s $2.15$ NPxG) to feed Samu at the elite level of 0.93 xG per game.
2. Player Management: We must manage Samu’s load and mentality. While we celebrate this clinicality, we must reinforce the principle: The goal is to hit the target, not to force the impossible. If his finishing normalises, we must ensure his volume of chances is still high enough to secure three points. We must not relax and assume this rate is guaranteed.

Quality vs. Volume: Where Sporting and Benfica Fall Short

Both Sporting and Benfica lag behind. Sporting CP generates solid chances (2.01 NPxG P90) but their conversion rate is more modest.

Benfica’s issues are deeper. Despite taking a high volume of shots (20.71 P90), their chances are the lowest quality, generating only 1.64 NPxG P90 and the lowest average shot quality (0.08 xG/SHOT). They are relying heavily on volume rather than penetration—a tough formula to sustain against well-organised defences.

The Defensive Wall: How Porto Is Choking the Opposition

Porto’s foundation is built on defence. Our structure is elite, limiting opponents to the fewest, lowest-quality chances, making us statistically the league’s best defence:

• xG AGAINST PER 90: 0.65 (Best)
• Shots Faced P90: 7.9 (Best)

To concede only 0.65 xG per 90 is truly world-class, ensuring that even on an off-day, their opponents are unlikely to find the back of the net more than once. The Dragons are masters of game control.

Luck or Goalkeeping? The Contrast in Defensive Efficiency

Sporting CP and SL Benfica allow similar levels of danger (around $0.95$ xG Against P90), but their goalkeeper/defensive luck is poles apart, creating huge swings in the table:

• Sporting’s Edge: Their -0.51 figure means they have conceded half a goal less than expected. This points to excellent goalkeeping or timely interventions—a huge advantage they must maintain.
• Benfica’s Worry: Benfica has conceded 1.2 goals more than their chances suggest, the worst figure among the three. This is a critical structural failure, pointing toward poor shot-stopping or costly defensive errors that must be fixed immediately if they hope to catch up.

Final Verdict: Who Is Structurally Sound for the Title Run-In?

FC Porto is the clear favourite based on mid-season metrics. Our dominance is dual-sided: generating the best attack and having the best defence. While the sheer magnitude of our offensive overperformance is a watch point, our defensive metrics are rock-solid and highly sustainable.

Sporting CP is strong but reliant on a favourable defensive conversion. They need to boost their chance creation (NPxG) to challenge Porto.

SL Benfica has the most work to do. They must improve the quality of their chances and immediately address the severe inefficiency in their defence to stop conceding soft goals. If their defence doesn’t align with their xGA soon, their title hopes will fade quickly.