Results say three straight defeats. The numbers say something very different. Across their last three matches, Chur have lost every game on the scoreboard – and won every single one on expected goals. It’s the kind of run that splits opinion: outrage for some, gallows humour for others, and catnip for tactical accounts determined to explain why this is actually good, actually. As the goals dry up and the data piles up, the timelines have had plenty to say.

@xGPhilosophy
xG: LS (1) 0.44 – 2.02 (0) C97. Football is a game of moments. The Aston Villa of Switzerland.

  @GraubuendenUltra
Three losses, three xG wins. Do we get a bonus table for this or…?

  @ResultsMatterActually
I don’t care if we “won” the xG. We lost 2–0. This isn’t Moneyball, it’s football.

  @TaktikAlpen
Performance levels remain stable. Chance quality is there. Variance is brutal right now, but this usually regresses.

  @LowerLeagueSwiss
Chur losing despite winning xG is the most Football Manager thing imaginable.

  @ExpectationManager
At this point I’m not asking to win. I’m asking to lose in a way that feels fair.

  @BaselDataLab
Over three games Chur generated ~4.7 xG and scored zero. That’s not tactics – that’s pain.

  @HotTakeHelvetia
If xG counted as goals we’d be top. Sack the laws of the game.

  @SwissCoachesRoom
Process > outcome. The structure is working. Finishing variance won’t last forever.

  @CantonCynic
We’re not on a losing streak. We’re on a data-driven journey.

This is the moment where Chur’s season quietly pivots.

The data says there is no crisis. Across the last three matches, Chur have controlled territory, generated the better chances, and limited opponents to moments rather than patterns. That matters — because those are the foundations that survive bad runs. The danger is not tactical collapse, but psychological drift: confidence thinning, patience shortening, decisions becoming rushed in front of goal.

Where Chur go from here is not reinvention, but recalibration. The attacking structure is producing shots, but the final actions need simplification. Fewer extra touches, earlier strikes, more bodies attacking second balls. Just as important is messaging. Arriola’s challenge is to protect belief without hiding from reality. The players need to feel backed for the process, but also reminded that dominance without goals is still incomplete. Short-term pragmatism – accepting uglier finishes, prioritising presence over purity — may bridge the gap until variance turns.

Chur are not broken. They are suspended between what the numbers promise and what the table demands. The next step is simple, but never easy: turn control into conviction, and chances into points.